"Corridors" of the financial uncertainty of economic development in the EU.

Abstract

In the article the monitoring of financial uncertainty of economic development of the EU on the basis of the analysis of indicators - indicators of financial instability in the context of global transformations is considered. We prove that the problems caused by the accumulation of an excessive debt in the real sector, lead to the fact that rebalancing is necessary to repay the debt arose, with the main cause of financial instability is negative dynamics fundamentals. Analysis of the theoretical and empirical aspects of the relationship of various macro-and meso-economic indicators and the probability of a crisis of the financial system allowed to identify a set of indicators that can be used as indicators for monitoring the crisis. On the basis of these calculations, it was hypothesized that: in the short term (2014-2015) to increase uncertainty and hence financial instability for the specified integration group will have an impact, primarily factors monetary and financial sphere, and secondarily, - monetary and in the medium (2017-2018) to reduce uncertainty will affect, first of all, the factors of the real economy, and secondly, - bank and nonbank instruments of monetary sphere.